Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Whither the Philippines in the New Normal?

PIMCO is one of the biggest and savviest bond fund companies in the world, and they're predicting that the global economy is entering a new phase, a "new normal" in their parlance. Finance and leverage were behind the frothy activity of the last few decades, and especially the last one. Many economies grew briskly, and much of global demand originated from the American consumers, who were finding money to pay for things by essentially borrowing from China and Japan.

The financial crisis that came to a head last year has changed everything, or so it is said. The process of deleveraging, which will take years, means that rich countries like the U.S., Japan, and the European Union won't be quite the massive sources of demand they once were, and poorer countries won't be able to follow the classic and well-trodden path of export-led development. As PIMCO's Curtis Mewbourne notes here, rapidly developing countries like Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the so-called BRIC countries) can no longer rely on overseas demand as an engine for growth. They have to stimulate domestic consumption, and that's what they're likely to attempt.

Assuming that the PIMCO read is correct, it's obvious what the important questions are for countries like the Philippines. How are they going to fit in a global economy increasingly driven by BRIC consumption (read: China), and what can they do to position themselves to succeed in the new normal?

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