Paper Tiger?

As reported here by the New York Times, ASEAN recently announced the establishment of the Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights. Critics blasted the commission as a sham, pointing to the fact that it has no authority to wield sanctions of any kind or the power to investigate governments for alleged violations.

Another Typhoon Hits PH

Typhoon Mirinae hit Quezon Province (northeast of Manila) around midnight Friday. At least 7 people were killed and several were missing. More info here.

Mindanao hit with earthquake

Mindanao was hit with an earthquake of 4.7 magnitude on Thurs. Oct. 29.

Data here.

Tagalog Tip of the Week: Counting

Counting to Ten:

1: isa

2: dalawa

3: tatlo

4: apat

5: lima

6: anim

7: pito

8: walo

9: shem

10: samput

Interesting number fact: In the Philippines both tagalog and spanish numbers are used.  When telling time Filipinos will use spanish numbers.  When counting money, either tagalog or spanish is used.  Any other type of counting or number use general would employ the tagalog version.  Enjoy.

Two-Punch Comeback for Erap?

Not only is Joseph Estrada (former President ousted by the People Power 2 movement in 2001) planning a political comeback for the 2010 Presidential elections, but he is also making a cinematic comeback.

Estrada, known as Erap, is filming "One and Only Family," a comedy about a jeepney driver who gives his daughter's boyfriend a hard time.

In the political arena, Erap's announcement about his intention to run in 2010 has caused quite a stir, with opponents in current President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's administration vowing to take the issue to the Supreme Court.

It will definitely be interesting and dramatic to see how Erap's comebacks play out!

Read more here

NYT Article on Birth Control Bill

The weekend edition of the New York Times featured an article on the Reproductive Health and Population Development Act, which would mandate free or near-free government provision of condoms, birth control pills, and other forms of birth control.

The main backer of the bill in the Philppine Congress, Edcel C. Lagman, is arguing that it is needed to curb the continuing growth of the Philippine population, which sits at around 100 million and is projected to grow at a 2 percent annual clip. Lagman is apparently concerned about the development implications of unchecked population growth.

The main opponent of the bill is reportedly the church and related organizations. The Rev. Melvin Castro of the Episcopal Commission on Family and Life is quoted as arguing that the bill is unconstitutional. "The Constitution is very clear that the state should protect life from conception up to its natural end," he said.

It is likely that the bill will become a major issue in the election next May.

Hat tip to Professor Alan Deardorff for the article!

Tagalog Tip of the Week

Common Greetings:

Magandang Umaga

Magandang Hapon

Magandang Gabi

Exact translation: 

Beautiful morning.

Beautiful afternoon.

Beautiful evening.

Loose Translation

Good morning.

Good afternoon.

Good evening.

Pronunciation:

Tagalog is strictly phonetical, so letters are always pronounced the same.  Consonants are pronounced essentially the same as they are in english.  In the tagalog alphabet, "ng" is its own character and even it's own stand alone word.  It's pronunciation is similar to the english pronunciation but the g is pronounced as a hard g in the back of your mouth like you would say rang, not swimming. Vowels are pronounced as follows:

a: as in mama

e: as in tray  

i: as in tree

o: as in toe

u: as in boot

ay: as in try

Enjoy!

Estrada's Return

Joseph Estrada, a formerly ousted President, announces his intention to run in the 2010 presidential election, which is bound to stir much controversy.

Congratulations

The IEDP Class of 2010 has been selected. Cheers!

A New Stance on Global Investment from Beijing?

According to this article in the Financial Times, there has been a growing call from China's think tanks to deploy some of China's $2.2 trillion in foreign exchange for purposes other than protection from the next currency or financial crisis. Xu Shanda, an economist who used to head up China's version of the IRS, proposed that some of the fund be diverted into loans for countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The point of the program would be to raise living standards and create new demand for Chinese products in a global economy where demand from Europe and the U.S. is leveling off. More specifically:

Justin Yifu Lin, the Chinese academic who is now the World Bank’s chief economist, said in an interview last week with Caijing magazine that Chinese companies should step up investment in Africa and south-east Asia, including outsourcing some low-end manufacturing, to boost consumer demand. “This is a source for future global economic growth and a source of demand,” he said.

Is there an opportunity here for the Philippines?

Whither the Philippines in the New Normal?

PIMCO is one of the biggest and savviest bond fund companies in the world, and they're predicting that the global economy is entering a new phase, a "new normal" in their parlance. Finance and leverage were behind the frothy activity of the last few decades, and especially the last one. Many economies grew briskly, and much of global demand originated from the American consumers, who were finding money to pay for things by essentially borrowing from China and Japan.

The financial crisis that came to a head last year has changed everything, or so it is said. The process of deleveraging, which will take years, means that rich countries like the U.S., Japan, and the European Union won't be quite the massive sources of demand they once were, and poorer countries won't be able to follow the classic and well-trodden path of export-led development. As PIMCO's Curtis Mewbourne notes here, rapidly developing countries like Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the so-called BRIC countries) can no longer rely on overseas demand as an engine for growth. They have to stimulate domestic consumption, and that's what they're likely to attempt.

Assuming that the PIMCO read is correct, it's obvious what the important questions are for countries like the Philippines. How are they going to fit in a global economy increasingly driven by BRIC consumption (read: China), and what can they do to position themselves to succeed in the new normal?

Small Businesses Suffer

As feared, small businesses have been hit hardest by the typhoons. Read here.

The Library of Congress on the Philippines

Anyone wanting to get started on learning a bit more about the Philippines could do a lot worse than reading through the Country Profile put together by the Research Division of the Library of Congress. Published in 2006, it's a touch dated (but not much), but it's still a great source of basic information on Philippine history and a terrific place to get acquainted with the key features of its economy, politics, and society.



If you prefer to download the PDF, just click here.

Only a Quarter of the UN Philippines Fund Raised So Far

BBC reports that the UN appeal for $74m has raised only $19m so far.

The Philippines government has estimated the cost of the back-to-back typhoons to be at least $350m, with losses to agriculture and fisheries expected to total much more.

Due to disease risk, the UN may increase the size of its emergency appeal. The UN's emergency relief co-ordinator, John Holmes, says: "The crisis is by no means over. Indeed the hard work is just starting."

See for yourself